Daily Market Outlook 06/30/11


U.S pending home sales are rises 8.2%. Estimates for pending home sales ranged from a drop of 4.8 percent to an increase of 15 percent, The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.4 percent to 1,301.29 at 10:25 a.m. in New York. Treasuries fell, pushing up the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.06 percent from 3.03 percent late yesterday.(BLB/L8)


European confidence in the economic outlook dropped to the lowest in eight months in June as policy makers struggled to craft a second bailout package for Greece. The euro was little changed against the dollar after the data, trading at $1.4391 at 11:18 a.m. in Frankfurt, up 0.1 percent on the day. An indicator of services confidence rose to 9.9 from 9.3, while a measure of consumer confidence increased to minus 9.8 from minus 9.9. Sentiment among builders also improved in June. (BLB/L8)

The Energy Department said inventories fell for a fourth week. Oil has gained 4.1 percent since June 23, when it dropped 4.6 percent after the International Energy Agency announced the release of 60 million barrels from strategic reserves, half from the U.S.(BLB/L8)

Market Review

Stock Index:

Asia :

Seoul shares rose on Wednesday, lifted by gains in refiners and automakers, but CJ Group-related shares tumbled after it was picked as the preferred buyer for Korea Express.The Korea Composite Stock Price Index ended up 1.53 percent at 2,094.42 points, hovering near its 60-day moving average of around 2,100 points. KOSPI 200 Sept futures ended up 3.3 points at 275.75 points and the KOSPI 200 spot index rose 4.2 points to 274.61.[Rtr/Fr/Dny]

The benchmark Hang Seng Index finished essentially unchanged at 22,061.18 points, but the China Enterprises Index ended down 0.66 percent at 12,404.52. On the mainland, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.11 percent at 2,728.48 points, snapping a six-day winning streak with banks also the standout underperformer on the day. [Rtr/Fr/Dny]

The Nikkei average closed at a seven-week high on Wednesday,The benchmark Nikkei rose 1.5 percent to 9,797.26, just shy of the 9,800 mark many market players have regarded as the top end of its core range since the quake. The broader Topix gained 1.7 percent to 844.11.[Rtr/Fr/Dny]

European:

European stocks rallied the most in three months as Greek lawmakers passed a package of austerity measures needed to secure the next tranche of European Union financial aid.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.7 percent to 269.8 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London, the biggest gain since March 21. France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.9 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 1.5 percent and Germany’s DAX increased 1.7 percent.(BLB/L8)

U.S :

U.S. stocks on Wednesday extended their winning run to a third straight day as Greece approved debt-reduction measures and Wall Street prepped for closing the books on the second quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.73 points, or 0.6%, to 12,261.42, The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 3.44 points, or 0.4%, to 2,740.49, readying it for a 1.5% quarterly decline and a drop of 3.3% for June.(MW/L8)

Commodities

Gold:

Gold gained for a second day in New York as a drop to a five-week low spurred some investors to buy the metal as an alternative to currencies. Gold futures for August delivery rose $10.20, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $1,510.40 at 1:43 p.m. on the Comex in New York. The price gained 0.3 percent yesterday. Prices are up 6.3 percent in 2011 after climbing the past 10 years. Gold futures reach a record $1,577.40 on May 2. as Greece is trying to avoid the euro area’s first default.(BLB/L8)

Oil:

Oil rose, in the biggest two-day rally in seven weeks in New York, after the U.S. government said supplies dropped almost three times as much as expected. Crude for August delivery rose $1.88 to settle at $94.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have risen 25 percent in the past year and have fallen 11 percent in the second quarter. Brent oil for August settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange gained $3.62, or 3.3 percent, to $112.40 a barrel.(BLB/L8)

Forex:

The euro reached two-week high against the dollar as investors raised bets the European Central Bank will increase interest rates next week after the passage of austerity measures by Greek lawmakers. Euro rose 0.5 percent to $1.4435 at 5:02 p.m. in New York, from 1.4371 yesterday. It gained to $1.4448, the strongest since June 15. The euro was little changed against the yen at 116.61. The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 80.78 yen.

The euro has risen 0.3 percent against the dollar this month, bringing its gain this quarter to 2 percent. The yen has gained 1 percent so far in June and has increased 2.9 percent in the last three months.

Dollar Index dropped 0.6 percent to 74.623 as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.8 percent. The S&P’s GSCI index of raw materials climbed 2.1 percent.

Currencies of commodity-exporting countries rose the most against the dollar among the major currencies as raw materials prices advanced. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities added 1 percent.

The Swiss currency slid 0.7 percent to 1.2042 per euro. The franc fell 0.3 percent to 83.42 centimes per dollar. It reached 82.76 centimes per dollar yesterday, a record high. The franc is the biggest gainer among the major currencies this quarter, rising 10 percent against the dollar.(BLB/L8)

Canada’s dollar climbed the most since December versus its U.S. prompting traders to ratchet up bets the central bank will resume raising interest rates.The loonie appreciated 1.2 percent to 96.95 cents per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto, from 98.12 cents yesterday. It gained the most on an intraday basis, 1.2 percent, since Dec. 2. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0315. The loonie gained 0.1 percent for the quarter. (BLB/L8)

Technical Outlook

Stock Indek :

ASIAN INDEX
SSI1U is forming a bullish three white soldier’s pattern on its daily chart. If it breaks above the 9,885 level, a continuation to 9,925 should be seen, with further resistance at 9,970 and initial support at 9,765. (MT)

HSI1M is forming a bullish three outside up pattern on its daily chart. If it breaks above the 22,250 level, a continuation to 22,344 should be seen, with further resistance at 22,500 and initial support at 21,953. (MT)

KOSPI1U is forming a bullish short black body pattern on its daily chart. If it breaks above the 277,35 level, a continuation to 279,20 should be seen, with further resistance at 281.40 and initial support at 273.45.(MT)

Commodities :

XAUUSD/loco gold is forming a bullish three outside up pattern on its daily chart. If it breaks above the 1514.90 level, a continuation to 1519.25 should be seen, with further resistance at 1524.05 and initial support at 1506.55.(MT)

OIL is forming a bullish two white soldier’s pattern on its daily chart. If it breaks above the 95.91 level, a continuation to 97.68 should be seen, with further resistance at 100.64 and initial support at 93.80. (MT)

Forex :

A bullish continuation candlestick appears on the daily chart of EURUSD, We view the pair will immediately hit a target at 1.4535 zone. Of course it should firstly penetrate yesterday’s high at 1.4448. Important support is located at 1.4320 zone. (TS)

We view USDJPY will maintain its sideways movement for coming days. The pair has been trading sideways between 81.27 and 79.70 since June 8. Key support for medium term is at 79.56. (TS)

A white candlestick appears after two white hammer candlesticks. With such picture on the daily chart of GBPUSD, we view the pair will likely continue to go upward with resistances at 1.6078 and 1.6124. Meanwhile intraday support is at 1.6030 (TS)

A bullish piercing pattern emerges on the daily chart of USDCHF suggesting the pair will likely continue its upward rebound after recording all time low at 0.8275 two days ago. Initial rebound targets are at 0.8385 and 0.8410. Meanwhile intraday support is at 0.8327 (TS)

A long white marubozu presents on the daily chart of AUDUSD indicating the pair will possibly continue going north with initial resistance at 1.0711. Intraday supports are seen at 1.0645 and 1.0594 (TS)

EURJPY is forming a bearish long legged doji pattern on its daily chart. If it breaks below the 116.20 level, a move to the downside to 115.62 should be seen, with further support at 115.09 and initial resistance now at 117.15. (MT)

EURGBP is forming a bearish long legged doji pattern on its daily chart. If it breaks below the 0.8961 level, a move to the downside to 0.8932 should be seen, with further support at 0.8870 and initial resistance now at 0.9015. (MT)

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