AUD/USD’s break of 1.0200 resistance suggests that recent sideway consolidations might be finished and the pair is possibly resuming medium term up trend. Intraday bias is back on the upside and break of 1.0254 will target upper channel resistance at 1.0382 next. On the downside, below 1.0112 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But we’ll stay bullish as long as 0.9704 support holds and expect up trend resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, with 0.9536 support intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. AUD/USD could make another high above 1.0254. But considering bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD, reversal should be imminent. We’ll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9536 will confirm that 1.0254 is the medium term top. Also, we’re looking at the prospect that whole up trend from 0.6008 has finished after hitting 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165. Decisive break of 0.9536 should drag AUD/USD deep into 0.8066/9404 support zone.