USDJPY Daily Outlook

USDJPY Daily Outlook 25/03/2011

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Ass noted before, with 84.49 resistance intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, while some consolidations would be seen above 76.40 first, we’d continue to favor a downside breakout eventually to extend the long term down trend. Below 79.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 76.40 first. On the upside, above 81.95 temporary top will bring another rise. But again, we won’t turn bullish before decisive break of 84.49.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 79.75 (1995 low) confirms that multi-decade down trend in USD/JPY has resumed. In any case, we’ll stay bearish as long as 84.49 key resistance holds. Current down trend would possibly extend to 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 83.96 at 74.88 next. However, decisive break of 84.49 will argue that an important medium term bottom is formed. Focus will then turn to whether USD/JPY could sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 85.45). In that case, stronger rise could be seen towards 94.97 resistance next.


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